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Just Shoot Me

Bala, 28, Gordon Gekko in the making, pseudo-intellectual, cynic, bibliophile, obsessive compulsive ranter...

Bye-Election Blues or How i never worried about Thirumangalam

January 27, 2009

In Tamil Nadu Bye Elections are (almost) always won by the ruling party. The reason is simple - the electorate is not stupid enough to antogonize the party in power. A snub to the "AaLum Katchi" means inviting payback through neglect and non allocation of funds. Hence they pocket whatever money that is doled out and elect the ruling party candidate.

How good is the above "analysis"?. The relevant data is here to investigate. There have been 67 bye elections in Tamil Nadu since 1952 (68 if you count Thirumangalam). Of those only 8 have been lost by the ruling party (or its alliance partners). And off those 8, there are a lot of "special cases":

1) 2004 - Mangalore was lost by ADMK due to the election being held together with the parliamentary elections. ADMK lost all 40 parliamentary seats and along with them mangalore
2)1999 - Natham was lost by DMK due to the four way split of the vote after TMC parted ways with DMK.
3)1991 - Harbour was lost by ADMK/Congress, as the bye election was held immediately after the assembly elections. Karunanidhi initially won in Harbour, but resigned the seat instead of going to the assembly.
4)1984 - Mayuram. DMK won the seat in a bye election in a squeaker
5)1980 - Anna Nagar. Same as case no 3. MK resigned after a assembly election rout and DMK retained the seat
6)1980 - Usilampatti. ADMK lost the seat to Forward Block.
7)1957 - Mudukulathoor. Congress loses to Muthuramalinga Thevar backed independent
8)1952 - Kangeyam. Congress loses to independent.


So that makes a meagre 12% success rate for "Edhir Katchis" in bye elections. And for 10000 (give or take a few thousand) rupees for a vote, ADMK had no chance with Thirumangalam.

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posted by Bala, 9:00 PM

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