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Just Shoot Me

Bala, 28, Gordon Gekko in the making, pseudo-intellectual, cynic, bibliophile, obsessive compulsive ranter...

mea culpa

September 17, 2008

On, March 8 2007, someone wrote this..

'...I believe the market will go into a big sideways for this year between 3500-4500. We are swimming in a sea of unstable liquidity (the yen carry trade circus is but one danger we are sitting upon), waiting to blow up. But i dont believe a meltdown is in the offing because : earnings growth wont slow except for a)recession in us b)big time monsoon failure in india. So not much upside left since valuations are already high (though not at 1987/2000 levels) and no meltdown in the offing, i see a great sideways movement not seen since last quarter of 2003 and early 2004. year 2007 will be the year of consolidation.... '

The idiot who wrote the above drivel was right about the 'unstable liquidity' part and wrong about almost everything else.... this guy was predicting a big sideways.. movement. And exactly a year ago on sep 18 2007, helicopter ben started the fed rate cutting spree. Nifty went to 6300 and then free fell to 3800. And i lost a couple of lakh rupees in my Nifty Option Straddles. yes, that idiot was me and this was the price i paid for finding my personal black swan. ;-)

PS: lately i noticed, all my posts have been dissing people about their stupidity, so for a change, i decided to write one about my own. But i am no hedge fund manager and i dont get paid to blow up other people's money. Alas, i wish i was employed in wall street.


posted by Bala, 9:54 PM


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